Climate Change Impacts on Agricultural Productivity and Rural-Urban Migration in India

Abstract

This paper examines how climate change-induced agricultural shocks affect migration decisions in India using district-level panel data from 640 districts across 28 states (2005-2024). Combining climate data with household surveys and migration records, we implement an instrumental variables approach where climate anomalies serve as exogenous productivity shocks. We find that each 1°C temperature increase above optimal growing season temperatures reduces agricultural yields by 8.7% and increases rural-urban migration by 4.2%. Rainfall variability intensifies these effects. Approximately 24 million people migrated due to climate-induced agricultural stress during our study period. We project that under moderate climate scenarios, climate-induced migration could reach 45-55 million in India by 2050, with significant implications for urban infrastructure, labor markets, and poverty dynamics.