Land-Use Change and Carbon Emissions in Southeast Asia

Abstract

Tropical deforestation accounts for 8 to 10 percent of global anthropogenic CO₂ emissions, with Southeast Asia representing one of the most active deforestation frontiers worldwide. This study analyzes forest cover loss and associated carbon emissions across six countries Indonesia, Myanmar, India, Cambodia, Thailand, and Vietnam over the period 2001 to 2022, using Hansen Global Forest Change data supplemented by MODIS fire detections and national forest inventory statistics. Cumulative tree cover loss across the six countries totaled 38.2 Mha, with Indonesia alone accounting for 18.2 Mha (48 percent of the regional total). Carbon emission time series reveal divergent trajectories: Indonesia's mean annual emissions declined by 19 percent between the 2001–2010 and 2011–2022 periods, coinciding with the 2011 forest moratorium on new concessions, while Myanmar and Vietnam experienced emission increases of 57 and 62 percent respectively, driven by expanding agricultural frontiers and commercial logging. El Niño events, particularly the severe 2015 episode, triggered peat fire emissions that exceeded baseline levels by factors of five to eight in Indonesia. These findings highlight both the efficacy and limitations of policy interventions and underscore the need for region-specific mitigation strategies that address the distinct drivers of deforestation in each national context.