Carbon Pricing and Economic Performance: A Comparative Analysis of Emissions Trading Systems and Carbon Taxes Across Major Economies

Abstract

This study conducts a comprehensive comparative analysis of carbon pricing mechanisms across 47 jurisdictions implementing either emissions trading systems or carbon taxes during the period 2015 to 2025. Employing synthetic control methods and difference in differences estimation, we assess the effectiveness of these instruments in reducing greenhouse gas emissions while evaluating their economic consequences for output, employment, and competitiveness. Our findings indicate that carbon pricing at current levels achieves meaningful emissions reductions averaging 8.2% relative to counterfactual trajectories, with no statistically significant negative effects on aggregate GDP growth. Emissions trading systems demonstrate greater emissions reduction effectiveness (9.7% versus 6.4% for carbon taxes) but exhibit higher price volatility and administrative complexity. Carbon taxes provide more stable price signals and raise greater government revenue per ton of emissions reduced. Revenue recycling mechanisms significantly moderate economic impacts, with jurisdictions returning carbon revenues through dividend payments or tax reductions experiencing employment gains of 0.4% compared to those using revenues for general spending. The results support the economic viability of carbon pricing as a climate policy instrument while highlighting the importance of complementary policies addressing competitiveness concerns and distributional impacts.